Odds via BetMGM UK. The chances of winning the election and predictions are based on implied probability with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is not legally allowed in the United States.
Former President Donald Trump has become the clear favorite to win the 2024 presidential election following a shocking assassination attempt during a campaign rally on Saturday. The incident, which occurred in Pennsylvania, tragically resulted in one spectator’s death and several injuries.
Despite sustaining a wound to his right ear, Trump, with the assistance of the Secret Service, stood defiantly and raised his fist to the cheering crowd. The Secret Service later confirmed that Trump was fine and had been taken to a hospital.
Officials have labeled the incident an assassination attempt on the former president. With Trump in good health post-incident, speculation quickly arose regarding the impact of this event on his 2024 campaign.
As of Sunday morning, Trump’s odds for the 2024 presidential election shifted dramatically. He is now a significant -400 favorite, translating to a 64.94% chance of victory. Prior to the shooting, his odds were -225, with a 57.24% chance of winning.
These new odds make Trump the biggest favorite in a U.S. presidential election since he was a -500 favorite on the eve of the 2020 election. This marks the first time a candidate has had over a 60% implied chance of winning the 2024 election.
Current President Joe Biden’s odds have improved to the second-most likely at +500, giving him a 13.53% chance of re-election. This creates a significant gap between Trump’s -400 odds and Biden’s +500 odds. Before the shooting, Biden was at +550, trailing Vice President Kamala Harris, who was at +450. Following the events, Harris’s odds have lengthened to +800.
Election odds provide a complementary perspective to national polls for predicting the outcome of the electoral vote count necessary to secure the presidency.
Trump issued a statement regarding the shooting on Saturday evening. Meanwhile, Biden’s odds have been declining since the first presidential debate in late June. Initially, Biden was at +125 before the debate, but his odds shifted to +425 immediately after.
Kamala Harris overtook Biden as the favorite for the Democratic ticket on July 3. Despite a brief resurgence in Biden’s odds following an interview where he reaffirmed his commitment to the race, Harris moved ahead once more. Biden’s odds fluctuated from +400 before a press conference to +550, then settled at +500.
Trump’s odds initially shifted to -200 following the first presidential debate. Before the debate, he was a -150 favorite, and just a week earlier, his odds were -137. In less than a month, Trump’s odds have surged from -137 to -400, solidifying his position as the frontrunner for the 2024 presidential election.